The biggest setback to the UPA in recent
times was the DMK withdrawing support to the Central Government a few months
back. Why was that significant? Because the state of Tamil Nadu was crucial to
the fortunes of the UPA in 2009.
The biggest surprise of the 2009 general
elections came from Tamil Nadu. The UPA, comprising of INC, DMK and a local
player VKC(Viduthalai
Chiruthaigal Katchi) were to suffer a crushing defeat according to the
pundits and they had enough reason to believe so. The dynasty politics practiced by the DMK did
not sink in well with its own supporters and regional politics was centered on
issues concerning the LTTE and parties like AIADMK and MDMK gained a lot from
those circumstances.
But the INC had history on its side, right from the days of Madras
presidency it has emerged on the winning side from 1920s to this day with an
exception of the elections held between 1996 and 1999. Tamil Nadu, just like
many other states in India is going through flip-flops of power transition at the state
level between two major players (DMK and AIADMK) but at the national level the
equation would involve no less than ten political parties. Even the alignment
of these small parties with the DMK or AIADMK faces the same see-saw condition.
Believers of the KARMA theory would argue that this happens with DMK and AIADMK
(lobbying for partners) because of their short span alliances with the UPA and
NDA. PMK(Paattali Makkal Katchi) is another political
party from Tamil Nadu which enjoys 80% vote share in Northern parts of the
state. It is based amongst the Vanniyar community and proposes that the state
be bifurcated. The point I want to make here is that the history of PMK’s
allegiance would give you a snapshot of where Tamil Nadu politics is situated
today. The following shows the allies of PMK in different Lok Sabha and State
Assembly elections since 1998:
1998 12th Lok Sabha AIADMK
1999 13th Lok Sabha DMK
2001 12th Assembly AIADMK
2004 14th Lok Sabha DMK
2006 13th Assembly DMK
2009 15th Lok Sabha AIADMK
2011 14th Assembly DMK
When movies like Vishwaroopam and Endhiran earn more than 250 crores
worldwide and movie stars like M. G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa have
ruled Tamil Nadu for nearly 30 years, it is a no brainer that movies and people
associated with them are highly influential on the voters. DMDK, a political
party formed in 2005 by actor Vijaykanth is surprisingly the second largest
party in the legislative assembly. This gave Vijaykanth to become the leader of
opposition and the party being recognized by the Election Commission of India. During elections, rigorous campaigning is
done by movie stars for both sides. The
other important factor at play during the assembly elections are the gifts
promised by political parties in their election manifestoes which include
laptops(for students), mixers and grinders(for women), etc. This might not be the case for Lok Sabha
elections as parties cannot promise gifts but they definitely know what
strategies work best in the state and how to influence them.
Given the current political scenario, it is very easy to predict a
landslide victory for Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK but that might not be necessarily
true. A similar situation in Uttar Pradesh did not provide fruitful results for
Mayawati in the 2009 elections who had won a major victory in the 2007 assembly
elections. But the opposition is too weak and hit by scams and infighting to
take on AIADMK which has everything going its way as of today.
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