Why The Break-Up?

Replying to a question about the shaky scenario of the 17-year alliance between JD(U) and BJP, Nitish Kumar said :

"Dua Dete Hain Jeene Ki, Dawa Karte Hain Marne Ki. Dushwari Ka Sabab Yeh Hain."

(Their blessing is for life, their medicine is for . This is the esdeathsence of enmity)

Let us first try to make out, what is Nitish Kumar’s problem with the BJP.
Since 2010, Nitish Kumar has changed his stance with regards to Narendra Modi. Prior to that, He was never adverse to Narendra Modi. 

In 2003, Nitish Kumar said praising Narendra Modi “I hope thatNarendra Modi will not be limited to Gujarat after some time. The country needshis services” 

He once said “Narendra Modi is the new face of the BJP. He comes from a Most Backward Class. He is Ghanchi, a Ghanchi! It is a minority backward caste there. The BJP’s Brahmin lobby is out to defame him. Even Vajpayee has joined its ranks. Modi is a dynamic man. Meet him once and you will become his admirer. He comes from a very poor family. He is extremely simple and very diligent.” Nitish Kumar concluded his speech with “I have become his fan.” 

Nitish Kumar himself was the Railway Minister when the unfortunate Godhra carnage happened in 2002. In 2005, He defended by saying, “It is a political stunt but they (the Centre) should knowthat they cannot take advantage of the Gujarat riots again and again”


There are many more instances when Nitish has praised Modi, therefore the obvious question that comes to mind is Why Nitish’s definition of secularism changing now?

The Bihar Legislative Assembly has a total of 243 seats, of which JD(U) has won 115, BJP has won 91and others won 36 seats. This is third term of Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister of Bihar and he has done pretty well. It seems, that He wants to do what Naveen Patnaik (Chief Minister of Odisha) did to BJP in the 2009 Odisha State Elections. Naveen Patnaik broke their 10 year old relationship with NDA in 2009 on the pretext of secularism. Before the 2009 elections, BJD held 71 seats and partner BJP held 32 seats in the 147 seat assembly. Riding on the wave (and knowing well that He will win many more seats) in 2009, He broke relations with the BJP and managed to win a staggering 103 seats. This was more because of his good work and lack of a credible face in the opposition.
Nitish Kumar is also perhaps thinking on the same lines. He is indeed the face of the JD(U) – BJP alliance in Bihar and also very popular. Since, He is almost near the half-way mark, He wants to consolidate the minority vote bank into his favour by projecting himself anti-Narendra Modi and hence secular and rule Bihar on his own.

And maybe, Nitish Kumar is eyeing 7 Race Course Road, which, in the present scenario is not possible while He is in the NDA. May be, a Third Front (Federal Front) might bring his dreams to life.

BJP - At The Crossroads.

Democracy is chaotic. And Chaotic is one word which would best describe the BJP in its present predicament. The anointment of Narendra Modi, the resignation of Advani, and the developments surrounding the party over the past 5 days clearly shows the dilemma which the BJP finds itself in.

The BJP realizes that Narendra Modi is the only leader which can enthuse the cadres of the party. Modi, being the most popular leader, is all set to be the face of the party for the next general elections. A darling of the corporate world, a hero for the neo-middle class, Narendra Modi has grown into being the leader which the central leader of the BJP can no longer ignore or sideline. In many ways, BJP's only option to revive itself is Modi. Many believe that Modi is the answer to the many question which the BJP has found few answers to over the past decade.

In Better times.

Some of those questions are  -
1) Who after Atal-Advani? Who among the next generation will lead the party for the next two decades?
2) What will be the ideology of the BJP going forward? Will it go back to its DNA, which is hard Hindutva, or will it find a more liberal center-right path for itself?
3) How to enthuse the cadre and the core voter base of the party?




The BJP most certainly believes that projecting Modi as the face of the party will reap rich dividends in the coming elections. But the predicament is that it also understands that Narendra Modi will be a polarizing figure, and would be unacceptable to many allies in a potential post-poll alliance. Many leaders in the party hold this view vehemently, and LK Advani seems to be one of them. With allies like the JD(U) playing brinksmanship of the hippest order, it would be interesting to see how the NDA shapes up going into these elections.



After Goa, it is pretty clear that the BJP has bitten the bullet on the issue of Modi,
and it does not seem to be in any mood to look back on that decision. Only time will tell what the future holds for Modi, the BJP and the NDA.




More on the Crisis in the BJP and the NDA in the following post on VoteWise.