The Battle for the South - Tamil Nadu

The biggest setback to the UPA in recent times was the DMK withdrawing support to the Central Government a few months back. Why was that significant? Because the state of Tamil Nadu was crucial to the fortunes of the UPA in 2009.

The biggest surprise of the 2009 general elections came from Tamil Nadu. The UPA, comprising of INC, DMK and a local player VKC(Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) were to suffer a crushing defeat according to the pundits and they had enough reason to believe so.  The dynasty politics practiced by the DMK did not sink in well with its own supporters and regional politics was centered on issues concerning the LTTE and parties like AIADMK and MDMK gained a lot from those circumstances.

But the INC had history on its side, right from the days of Madras presidency it has emerged on the winning side from 1920s to this day with an exception of the elections held between 1996 and 1999. Tamil Nadu, just like many other states in India is going through  flip-flops of power transition at the state level between two major players (DMK and AIADMK) but at the national level the equation would involve no less than ten political parties. Even the alignment of these small parties with the DMK or AIADMK faces the same see-saw condition. Believers of the KARMA theory would argue that this happens with DMK and AIADMK (lobbying for partners) because of their short span alliances with the UPA and NDA. PMK(Paattali Makkal Katchi) is another political party from Tamil Nadu which enjoys 80% vote share in Northern parts of the state. It is based amongst the Vanniyar community and proposes that the state be bifurcated. The point I want to make here is that the history of PMK’s allegiance would give you a snapshot of where Tamil Nadu politics is situated today. The following shows the allies of PMK in different Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections since 1998:

                 

1998              12th Lok Sabha          AIADMK

1999              13th Lok Sabha          DMK

2001              12th Assembly           AIADMK

2004              14th Lok Sabha          DMK

2006              13th Assembly           DMK

2009              15th Lok Sabha          AIADMK

2011              14th Assembly           DMK

When movies like Vishwaroopam and Endhiran earn more than 250 crores worldwide and movie stars like M. G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa have ruled Tamil Nadu for nearly 30 years, it is a no brainer that movies and people associated with them are highly influential on the voters. DMDK, a political party formed in 2005 by actor Vijaykanth is surprisingly the second largest party in the legislative assembly. This gave Vijaykanth to become the leader of opposition and the party being recognized by the Election Commission of India.  During elections, rigorous campaigning is done by movie stars for both sides.  The other important factor at play during the assembly elections are the gifts promised by political parties in their election manifestoes which include laptops(for students), mixers and grinders(for women), etc.  This might not be the case for Lok Sabha elections as parties cannot promise gifts but they definitely know what strategies work best in the state and how to influence them.

Given the current political scenario, it is very easy to predict a landslide victory for Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK but that might not be necessarily true. A similar situation in Uttar Pradesh did not provide fruitful results for Mayawati in the 2009 elections who had won a major victory in the 2007 assembly elections. But the opposition is too weak and hit by scams and infighting to take on AIADMK which has everything going its way as of today.

Why The Break-Up?

Replying to a question about the shaky scenario of the 17-year alliance between JD(U) and BJP, Nitish Kumar said :

"Dua Dete Hain Jeene Ki, Dawa Karte Hain Marne Ki. Dushwari Ka Sabab Yeh Hain."

(Their blessing is for life, their medicine is for . This is the esdeathsence of enmity)

Let us first try to make out, what is Nitish Kumar’s problem with the BJP.
Since 2010, Nitish Kumar has changed his stance with regards to Narendra Modi. Prior to that, He was never adverse to Narendra Modi. 

In 2003, Nitish Kumar said praising Narendra Modi “I hope thatNarendra Modi will not be limited to Gujarat after some time. The country needshis services” 

He once said “Narendra Modi is the new face of the BJP. He comes from a Most Backward Class. He is Ghanchi, a Ghanchi! It is a minority backward caste there. The BJP’s Brahmin lobby is out to defame him. Even Vajpayee has joined its ranks. Modi is a dynamic man. Meet him once and you will become his admirer. He comes from a very poor family. He is extremely simple and very diligent.” Nitish Kumar concluded his speech with “I have become his fan.” 

Nitish Kumar himself was the Railway Minister when the unfortunate Godhra carnage happened in 2002. In 2005, He defended by saying, “It is a political stunt but they (the Centre) should knowthat they cannot take advantage of the Gujarat riots again and again”


There are many more instances when Nitish has praised Modi, therefore the obvious question that comes to mind is Why Nitish’s definition of secularism changing now?

The Bihar Legislative Assembly has a total of 243 seats, of which JD(U) has won 115, BJP has won 91and others won 36 seats. This is third term of Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister of Bihar and he has done pretty well. It seems, that He wants to do what Naveen Patnaik (Chief Minister of Odisha) did to BJP in the 2009 Odisha State Elections. Naveen Patnaik broke their 10 year old relationship with NDA in 2009 on the pretext of secularism. Before the 2009 elections, BJD held 71 seats and partner BJP held 32 seats in the 147 seat assembly. Riding on the wave (and knowing well that He will win many more seats) in 2009, He broke relations with the BJP and managed to win a staggering 103 seats. This was more because of his good work and lack of a credible face in the opposition.
Nitish Kumar is also perhaps thinking on the same lines. He is indeed the face of the JD(U) – BJP alliance in Bihar and also very popular. Since, He is almost near the half-way mark, He wants to consolidate the minority vote bank into his favour by projecting himself anti-Narendra Modi and hence secular and rule Bihar on his own.

And maybe, Nitish Kumar is eyeing 7 Race Course Road, which, in the present scenario is not possible while He is in the NDA. May be, a Third Front (Federal Front) might bring his dreams to life.

BJP - At The Crossroads.

Democracy is chaotic. And Chaotic is one word which would best describe the BJP in its present predicament. The anointment of Narendra Modi, the resignation of Advani, and the developments surrounding the party over the past 5 days clearly shows the dilemma which the BJP finds itself in.

The BJP realizes that Narendra Modi is the only leader which can enthuse the cadres of the party. Modi, being the most popular leader, is all set to be the face of the party for the next general elections. A darling of the corporate world, a hero for the neo-middle class, Narendra Modi has grown into being the leader which the central leader of the BJP can no longer ignore or sideline. In many ways, BJP's only option to revive itself is Modi. Many believe that Modi is the answer to the many question which the BJP has found few answers to over the past decade.

In Better times.

Some of those questions are  -
1) Who after Atal-Advani? Who among the next generation will lead the party for the next two decades?
2) What will be the ideology of the BJP going forward? Will it go back to its DNA, which is hard Hindutva, or will it find a more liberal center-right path for itself?
3) How to enthuse the cadre and the core voter base of the party?




The BJP most certainly believes that projecting Modi as the face of the party will reap rich dividends in the coming elections. But the predicament is that it also understands that Narendra Modi will be a polarizing figure, and would be unacceptable to many allies in a potential post-poll alliance. Many leaders in the party hold this view vehemently, and LK Advani seems to be one of them. With allies like the JD(U) playing brinksmanship of the hippest order, it would be interesting to see how the NDA shapes up going into these elections.



After Goa, it is pretty clear that the BJP has bitten the bullet on the issue of Modi,
and it does not seem to be in any mood to look back on that decision. Only time will tell what the future holds for Modi, the BJP and the NDA.




More on the Crisis in the BJP and the NDA in the following post on VoteWise.